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When in doubt, throw the Kurds under a bus.

Congratulations to Sweden and Finland for giving in to a genocidal dictator’s demands.

inkl.com/a/jXGVVJTvWgv

Westerners: “haha, we pulled one over on Erdoğan. Don’t worry, the Kurds are safe…”

Erdoğan: “these signatures don't mean the issue is done... Without our parliament's approval, this does not go into effect … The ball is in their court now.”

“Asked about the extradition of suspects, Erdogan said if the Nordic countries did not send these individuals ‘then we will do what is necessary through our institutions and units.’”

inkl.com/a/jXnQNxFvWgv

@aral I was hoping that an economic bailout might have been the sweetening.

Very sorry to read this.

@aral I'd rather the solution was evicting Turkey until they quit murdering their neighbors, too, but that's too much to ask, I see.

@mdhughes Oh, we’re all about democratic ideals and human rights… unless it inconveniences us in any way, that is.

@aral I never understood how Erdogan’s objections weren’t dismissed for the hypocritical bullshit that they are in the first place.

@ClaudetteK I guess the situation is much the same as in the UN Security Council. Yes it's a huge pile of bullshit but a veto is still a veto.

@aral

@ClaudetteK I believe the answer lies in our own hypocrisies. We talk a good talk on democracy and human rights…

@aral I guess that’s fair. To be honest, a lot of these well-intended institutions lose credibility by allowing themselves to be strongarmed from the get-go.

@ClaudetteK @aral Now if only I had any confidence this was just a handy ploy by NATO to get Turkey to accept the new members but then Sweden & Finland could backtrack on a technicality because such extraditions wouldn’t conform with the international human rights conventions.

If only there was even one single nation state on the planet that didn’t pay mere lip service to human rights when it suits them.

@Saket @ClaudetteK @aral

Well, if you read the MoU and finnish president's comments, things look a bit different.
- No changes coming to 🇫🇮 legislation or practices
- Extradiction requests will be addressed "thoroughly" "in accordance with the European Convention on extradiction" and naturally with Finnish laws. Just like earlier.
- There never was arms embargo. Requests will be decided case by case also in the future. Actual NATO membership might change criteria here, though, but not turkey's bazaar haggling.

All this does not rule out forgetting human rights when it suits Finland. But so far this does not look like that kind of situation.

More competent people have better analysis on hellsite:
- Minna Ålander: https://twitter.com/minna_alander/status/1541865826747392006
- Janne Korhonen: https://twitter.com/jmkorhonen/status/1542065746808815616

@juristi So perhaps there is something to @Saket’s hope, after all, then? @aral

@aral @ClaudetteK @Saket

Same here. Hoping that this really was only smoke and mirrors to get USA into discussions about fighter upgrades.

We'll see if things have changed with next extradition requests. It's likely that media will take interest and check if Finland has actually given in to erdogan's demands.

@juristi @ClaudetteK @Saket @aral These comments don't address the worst parts in section 5: Fin and Swe "commit to prevent [...] activities of individuals in affiliated and *inspired* groups or networks linked" to PKK.

This is very dangerous language that can be interpreted to mean a commitment to prevent peaceful activism that's inspired by some of the political goals of PKK (e.g. Kurdish self-determination).

nitter.net/MartinScheininF/sta

International geopolitics 

@ClaudetteK @aral

It's not really about the merits of an the objections, NATO is an alliance and its members each have veto rights.

Any member can veto any new member for any reason they want.

The only alternative would be for Turkey to be expelled by the other members, but this would help Putin to do really awful things in Ukraine and elsewhere.

No options (including inaction) are good, all of them cause something horrible to happen.

International geopolitics 

@ClaudetteK @aral

If Finland and Sweden are blocked from joining NATO, it helps Putin.

If Turkey is expelled from NATO, it helps Putin.

If Turkey is appeased, it helps Erdogan.

Those are the only options currently in existence. I wish they weren't, but they are.

We need to create some better options if we want better human rights, but if they don't exist they cannot be chosen.

International geopolitics 

@ClaudetteK @aral

Apologies I guess a better fourth option might be:

Put pressure on Erdogan to drop objections without betryaing the Kurds

That might be a true least worst option, where human rights abuse is minimised.

But it's difficult to know if it's been tried or not, because (if it was done) it would be done behind the scenes so Erdogan could back down without losing face.

International geopolitics 

@ClaudetteK @aral

...but even with this fourth option, it's possible that pressure was tried and Erdogan just knew he had an advantage and decided to "play chicken":

Turkey's independence isn't under threat, and in any case it has NATO membership to protect it.

Finland and Sweden's independence *is* under threat (from Putin), and they don't have NATO membership yet.

Behind-the-scenes pressure might have been rendered ineffective because of this imbalance.

International geopolitics 

@ClaudetteK @aral

Just had another read about this, apparently no deal has actually been done.

This week's agreement was vague enough that it doesn't actually commit anyone to any course of action.

New memberships only come into effect when all the existing members ratify it. That hasn't happened yet.

So, we will only know what actually happens when it comes time for Turkey to ratify the new members.

International geopolitics 

@FediThing @ClaudetteK @aral this seems to be a mechanism in imperialism. Some propaganda about the empire, that it's better than the rest is believed,(possibly because alternatives are just extraordinarily bad) making "non-imperialist" people support it.

The risk is we're not actually better than alternatives, and this logic pushed forward being good indefinitely.

That said, it's hard to disagree here, consider that Turkey-Greece(Crete) could be involved here..

@aral Yeah, it's quite embarrassing to say the least :(

@aral just read a Guardian article on this. I'm really disappointed in 🇫🇮and 🇸🇪. They could have let the US and the rest of NATO put pressure on 🇹🇷 to unblock their joining, as they would be a huge boon to the alliance. Instead they drop their morals and historic support for a subjugated people, pledging not to support the Kurds anymore, and planning an extradition agreement so the kurdish are no longer safe in 🇸🇪 and 🇫🇮...really really disappointing.

@Isaac123
The only thing that is new is dropping direct support for YPG, extraditions still needs proof that a court will accept, etc.
@aral

@Isaac123 @aral
I'll add to that, my personal prediction is that Turkey will tear the agreement up after they realize that they still can't just send a shopping list of politically inconvenient Kurds and then just have them delivered, but that it has to pass through the legal system.

@maswan @Isaac123 @aral The paper is probably just a political prize to show off at home. The more likely concrete win here are the F-16s that just happened to become available for sale to Turkey.

@aral NATO/USA are hell-bent on defeating the Soviet Union, yea these many years since its demise. The way to do it is to move off of fossil fuels of course, but no.

@aral I hoped for the longest time it wouldn't come to this. Sad to see.

@aral

And again how the situation is communicated in 🇫🇮:
- "As Justice Minister, matters related to extradition fall under Henriksson's remit and she said that no political considerations can be allowed to play a part in the decision-making process, echoing comments made by President Sauli Niinistö on the same subject.
'If there are now new requests for extraditions, they will be handled in the same way as before. We comply with the Council of Europe's Convention on Extradition'" [1]
- He [President Niinistö] also declined to comment on the aggressive stance adopted by Erdoğan. “Let’s just say that our fundamental starting point is that we’re prepared for all sorts of things. Just like we saw in the spring.” [2]

As expected, both parties are telling their own story regarding the paper. No need to go full doom mode, but still need to stay vigilant. Lots of political cliffhangers and rhetoric still on the way. But in the end important thing is what happens in real life.

Giving in to turkey's demands after their stunt would be pretty much a political suicide here. So I would be surprised if there were some significant changes to procedures coming. If erdogan would have placed his demands before the public application, things could be much worse as they would have been handled behind the scenes.

[1] https://yle.fi/news/3-12516782
[2] https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/domestic/21817-niinistoe-memorandum-with-turkey-was-about-invitation-not-ratification.html
[-] https://yle.fi/news/3-12519144

@aral

Yeah I don't think the average person realizes the kind of scum that we regularly make deals with:

Erdogan, dictator
Xi Jinping, dictator, running genocidal reeducation camp
Saudis - woman hating monarchists, who we only deal with because they happen to be sitting on a giant pile of oil
Modi, dictator, theocrat, just banned VPNs across India

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