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#population

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So what's going on here?
1) An overall falling birth rate, below replacement level in a rich country like the UK, is a GOOD THING.
2) If poorer families are disproportionately unlikely to have children, that is a BAD THING.
3) #DemographicSlowdown does bring challenges but they can be addressed. Clue: expect lots of #ClimateRefugees in coming decades.

Bridget Phillipson says she wants more young people in UK to have children | Bridget Phillipson |
archive.ph/X2NJ1
#population #BirthRate

🇮🇳 🇨🇳 **The Demographic Race between India and China**

"_Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative to India for most of the next half century given India’s disadvantage in educational attainment and very low female labor force participation._"

Marois, G., Gietel-Basten, S. & Lutz, W. The Demographic Race between India and China. Popul Res Policy Rev 44, 44 (2025). doi.org/10.1007/s11113-025-099.

SpringerLinkThe Demographic Race between India and China - Population Research and Policy ReviewAs India surpasses China as the world’s most populous country, questions arise as to whether this demographic shift will lead India to overtake China economically. This paper examines this demographic race beyond population size. Using multi-dimensional demographic projections by age, sex, education, and labor force participation, we show that China’s current apparent demographic travails will not necessarily threaten its leading status relative to India for most of the next half century given India’s disadvantage in educational attainment and very low female labor force participation. India’s young population could provide a demographic dividend later this century, but only if it makes substantial investments in education and increasing women’s labor force participation rates. The demographic race between giants will be determined more by human capital development than simply by total population size.

In grad school I noticed a printed message on the wall of our research lab. It was something like "distill information from the hint of implication" (bad memory).

I innocently said to an older grad student, "Yeah, that does sound like a way to commit Type-I errors" or something equivalent.

Well, that's not what the older grad student took from the sign and I got a very cold, slightly huffy response.

How long would it take for humans to go extinct if we stopped having babies?

"If humans were to go extinct, it could open up opportunities for other animals to flourish on Earth. On the other hand, it would be sad for humans to go away because we would lose all of the great achievements people have made, including in the arts and science."

livescience.com/archaeology/hu?

Live Science · How long would it take for humans to go extinct if we stopped having babies?Even though there are 8 billion people on Earth today, a catastrophe could send that number much lower within a few decades.
Replied in thread

@livvydun

Les #célébrités « normales » comme des acteurs se payent (ou se les font payer par un employeur ou mandataire ou agent) des gardes du corps.
Et cela ne me choque spécialemement.

Mais LÀ nos #impôts devaient leur payer une protection privée ? ? Qui affaiblit donc la protection générale de la #population (puisque la police est un service public, ici dévoyée vers une poignée de #riches #avares) ? ?

#justiceA2vitesses
#justiceGenrée

sciencealert.com/over-2-millio In 1st yrs of #COVID19 #pandemic, #Americans were dying at a much higher rates than other wealthy nations. New analysis now estimates that in 2020 & 2021 more than 2 million Americans went 'missing' from the #population. These are people who would still be alive if the US had same death rate as other high-income nations. "Imagine the lives saved, grief and trauma averted, if the US simply performed at the average of our peers," #trump #maga #vaccines #publichealth #CDC

ScienceAlert · Over 2 Million Americans Went 'Missing' During 2020 And 2021In the first years of the COVID-19 pandemic, Americans were dying at much higher rates than other wealthy nations.

newscientist.com/article/24726

In this article they discuss how some researchers studying rural regions found that official estimates of population in these rural regions often vastly undercount, so that there could be 2 or 3x as many people in these regions as reported. Enough to make the global population estimates much more uncertain than they appear to be. #demography #demographics #population #statistics

New Scientist · Have we vastly underestimated the total number of people on Earth?By Chris Stokel-Walker

It puzzles me when people argue like this about population. Forgetting that Western countries have a resource footprint that is orders of magnitude greater than those of poorer parts of the world, we are, as a species, overwhelming the planet. Arguments about ‘who is going to do all the work/look after the elderly etc..’ are a slightly different thing - but we will not solve them with population growth.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/

The Guardian · Are there billions more people on Earth than we thought? If so, it’s no bad thingBy Jonathan Kennedy

"""
Russia passed a bill banning what state-run news wires describe as the "public propaganda of the ideas of voluntarily choosing not to have children."

Russian authorities have restricted access to abortions and contraception and have even offered pregnant women payouts in a bid to encourage the population to have children.

It is estimated that Russia's population will fall to about 132 million in the next two decades.
"""

newsweek.com/russia-ban-harry-

Newsweek · Russia Seeks to Ban Game Of Thrones, Harry Potter Over 'Childfree Ideology'By Isabel van Brugen

Either we control ourselves or nature will solve the problem.
"At some point, preferably before the last forest is cut down, before too many species have gone extinct, before the last fish is pulled from the sea, before we get to “ hothouse Earth”, and before the rivers run dry, we have to stop population growth."
johnmenadue.com/post/2025/04/y
#AusPol
#population

johnmenadue.comYes, we do need a population planAbul Rizvi rightly argues that “we desperately need a population plan to enable better planning for our future by governments at all levels, and businesses”.